Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.511270 0.570667 0.636986 0.717070 0.811896 0.921533 1.059263
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.421054 0.490710 0.573461 0.680501 0.817536 0.990315 1.230078
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.361635 0.434890 0.525995 0.650191 0.819330 1.048407 1.394992
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.332571 0.411485 0.513852 0.660503 0.872651 1.181598 1.694031
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.314218 0.398905 0.513078 0.684449 0.947283 1.359017 2.111646
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.294774 0.382248 0.504035 0.694263 1.001400 1.515599 2.547207
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.277380 0.366368 0.493803 0.700059 1.049112 1.671422 3.040835
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.259730 0.348295 0.478129 0.694685 1.076390 1.796169 3.522879
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.238946 0.323845 0.450375 0.666008 1.057511 1.827306 3.801981
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.228741 0.314300 0.444583 0.672996 1.104514 2.003269 4.541436
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.219951 0.306135 0.440057 0.681311 1.155125 2.200781 5.470006
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.208957 0.293719 0.427505 0.673684 1.172329 2.326073 6.261963
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.199721 0.283804 0.418841 0.673301 1.207184 2.512705 7.470380
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.186351 0.266443 0.396344 0.644500 1.175952 2.519104 7.972263
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.174749 0.251299 0.376614 0.619124 1.148771 2.530925 8.532262
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.170149 0.247297 0.375772 0.630480 1.207816 2.810960 10.795373
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.167755 0.246729 0.380802 0.654027 1.300670 3.235603 14.759900
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.163495 0.242729 0.379324 0.663934 1.361868 3.587433 19.238436
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.158975 0.238007 0.376140 0.669812 1.413976 3.935219 25.001725
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.153386 0.231123 0.368448 0.665020 1.436283 4.181318 30.885535
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.145403 0.219696 0.351531 0.638173 1.392026 4.133979 32.767103
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.142052 0.216248 0.349559 0.644851 1.446181 4.546897 44.771075
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.139036 0.213228 0.348187 0.652743 1.505980 5.029108 64.059602